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A leader’s guide to the new era for global companies

Leading Off

Multiple scenarios to mull over ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌   ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 
Leading Off

Brought to you by Alex Panas, global leader of industries, & Axel Karlsson, global leader of functional practices and growth platforms

Welcome to the latest edition of Leading Off. We hope you find our insights useful. Let us know what you think at Alex_Panas@McKinsey.com and Axel_Karlsson@McKinsey.com.

—Alex and Axel

The business impact of tariffs and changing trade dynamics remains a top concern for organizations across industries—and especially for large multinational companies (MNCs). The leaders of global organizations are seeking to both protect against disruptions and create value in today’s evolving business environment. This week, we look at a few ways that MNCs can navigate tariffs and global trade developments—and the challenges they present—to survive and thrive in an increasingly fragmenting world.

An image linking to the web page “Multinationals at a crossroads: Adapting to a new geopolitical era” on McKinsey.com.

More and more, the decisions that MNC leaders make will be informed by ten geopolitical issues that affect global business, including tariffs, import and export controls, and geopolitical conflicts. With those factors in mind, leaders can prepare for various scenarios by evaluating three fundamental elements: the value at stake for the MNC, the company’s governance structure, and its organizational structure. “One truth spans all scenarios: The MNC model will need to move beyond enabling growth and efficiency to also embedding the adaptability to capture opportunities and the resilience to withstand geopolitical shocks,” say McKinsey Global Managing Partner Bob Sternfels, Senior Partners Brooke Weddle, Cindy Levy, and Shubham Singhal, and their coauthors. They advise MNCs to test their strategic plans by examining the geopolitical value at stake, both company-wide and by business area, as well as their appetite for risk. With respect to governance, global companies can make their legal and capital structures more flexible to either pursue emerging opportunities or pull back from certain markets. They also can reorganize to centralize or even separate business units, functions, and shared services in response to geopolitical shifts.

An image linking to the web page “Becoming CEO—just in time for a global crisis: David Gitlin” on McKinsey.com.

Becoming a CEO is always a demanding transition—and for David Gitlin of Carrier Global Corporation, global disruptions have amplified the challenge. In Gitlin’s first year leading the climate and energy solutions company, the COVID-19 pandemic shut down the world. “It forced me to mature faster as CEO, as it did our entire leadership team—it really put our maturation on steroids because we had no choice but to step up as a team,” he tells McKinsey’s Eric Kutcher in an episode of the Inside the Strategy Room podcast. “Everyone kind of forgot about their titles. It was just a group of leaders galvanizing around our people, our customers, and the company to try to get us through a really tough time.” Now, like other leaders, Gitlin is assessing the potential effects of tariffs and other government policy moves on Carrier’s many business lines and geographical units. “The key for us is controlling the controllables and purposely remaining quite cautious about spending and similar decisions,” he says.

An image linking to the web page “The great trade rearrangement” on McKinsey.com.

Amid the ongoing uncertainty around US–China trade, companies are considering how they might rearrange trade of thousands of products, from T-shirts and fireworks to semiconductors and rare earth magnets. A new McKinsey Global Institute analysis establishes a “rearrangement ratio” to help leaders answer this question. McKinsey’s Olivia White, Chris Bradley, Michael Birshan, Sven Smit, and their coauthors note that rearrangement can take many forms, such as reducing purchases, replacing imported items with similar ones, or accelerating domestic production. The ratio finds, for example, that US firms would have more difficulty replacing consumer goods from China than they would its business input imports, and that Europe would play a key role in trade rearrangement as both an exporter and importer.

Lead by adapting to global change.

— Edited by Eric Quiñones, senior editor, New Jersey

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by "McKinsey Leading Off" <publishing@email.mckinsey.com> - 04:36 - 7 Jul 2025