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After 30 years of relative calm, is the world at the start of a new era?

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On the cusp of a new era

In the news

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Economic discontent. For generations, economic volatility has been linked with societal instability. Now, the rising costs of daily life are contributing to “febrile political dynamics,” with destabilizing effects on countries across the globe, according to the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Outlook, a survey of leading economists from the public and private sectors. Ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine mean that real wages are declining fast. As stated in a recent index, 101 out of 198 countries saw an increased risk of civil unrest. [WEF]

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Protests in Europe. In 19 European countries, inflation has hit a historic high. In response, people across the region are protesting in the streets, raising their voices to demand higher pay to help households deal with the swiftly rising costs of energy and food. Since September 2021, governments have earmarked more than $566 billion for energy relief. Still, recent strikes and demonstrations reflect widespread dismay over the soaring costs of living and could potentially lead to political disorder. [AP]

If we are indeed in the early throes of a seismic shift—as the evidence appears to suggest—leaders must both prepare for the possibility of a new era and position themselves to shape it.

On McKinsey.com

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A potential new era. After three decades of relative calm, today’s unnerving events have largely come as surprises: a global pandemic, energy scarcity, rapid inflation, and rising geopolitical tensions. Similar to how the aftermath of World War II, the oil crisis of the early 1970s, and the breakup of the Soviet Union each ushered in a new epoch, could the world now be on the cusp of a new era? A new McKinsey Global Institute paper by senior partners Chris Bradley , Sven Smit , and Jonathan Woetzel and partner Jeongmin Seong suggests a framework to imagine the potential new era.

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Five domains. To begin to build a map for the new era, the McKinsey Global Institute examined five domains that could help determine how the future unfolds. For example, in just one of the domains, demographic forces, a young world will transition into an aging, urban one; the age of communicable diseases may give way to an age of noncommunicable diseases; and inequality within countries may increasingly challenge the social fabric. See five domains of the world’s next era.

Learn more about the new era

—Edited by Grace Ivey, Editor, Atlanta

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by "McKinsey On Point" <publishing@email.mckinsey.com> - 12:39 - 29 Nov 2022

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After 30 years of relative calm, is the world at the start of a new era?

On the cusp of a new era

In the news

If we are indeed in the early throes of a seismic shift—as the evidence appears to suggest—leaders must both prepare for the possibility of a new era and position themselves to shape it.

On McKinsey.com