McKinsey&Company
Executives on the world economy
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The breakfast indicator. Inflation is at the highest it’s been in decades, with the war in Ukraine fueling increases in energy and food prices. By tracking the wholesale cost of foods such as oats, orange juice, milk, and wheat, the Financial Times’ “breakfast indicator” provides an ongoing snapshot of the price pressures faced by households. Inflationary pressures may be spreading to more parts of the world. Even Asia (which had been earlier spared from the global pattern) is beginning to see increases in consumer prices. [FT] |
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Bubbly housing markets. There’s a new risk for a world economy that’s already confronting high inflation, bumpy stock markets, and ongoing war in Europe: a potential slowdown in global housing markets. A Bloomberg Economics analysis found that 19 OECD countries have overheated property markets that could make them vulnerable to decreasing prices. Interest rate hikes and increasing borrowing costs have stretched consumers to the limit, and sellers are cutting prices on homes that were once in hot destinations. [Bloomberg] |
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It’s about inflation. In nearly every part of the world, inflation is now perceived as the leading risk to economic growth in respondents’ home economies, finds the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions. Even in Europe, where 50% consider geopolitical conflicts and instability to be among the top risks to their countries’ economies, inflation is still the most frequently cited risk. Greater China is the only region in which respondents pointed to the COVID-19 pandemic as the top risk to domestic growth.
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The home advantage. In the latest survey from June 2022, half of all respondents expect the global economy to worsen over the next six months, while 29% expect it to improve. Executives’ expectations for their home countries are somewhat more optimistic than their outlook on the global economy, with 39% expecting their home economies to improve in the coming months. See what executives view as the biggest threats to the global economy.
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| — Edited by Belinda Yu |
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