McKinsey&Company
Driving down autonomous mobility’s cost
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Call it like it is. Should self-driving cars be marked as such? Arguments against labeling include the idea that if self-driving cars are easily identifiable, human drivers may react to them differently, throwing off the machine learning intended to respond to people’s normal driving habits. But on balance, labeling wins the debate, says one science and technology policy professor. The rules of the road need to evolve to account for the driving habits of robots, and that will start with being able to spot them. [MIT] |
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The road less traveled. It’s going to take more than self-driving cars to make autonomous driving a normal part of daily life. Roads also need to be modernized—for example, with digital systems that alert cars when pedestrians are near (and the other way around). One start-up is partnering with state and local governments to create a network of tech-enhanced “smart roads” in the US. On those roads, drivers of some cars equipped with hands-free driving systems don’t even have to watch where they’re going. [Axios] |
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Data driven. To understand how the autonomous-vehicle (AV) market could evolve, McKinsey developed a Mobility Market Model using data from about 2,800 cities and rural regions in more than 110 countries. While costs for AV services are very high today, they could decline significantly in the next ten years as the technology advances, McKinsey analysis finds. The cost per mile for a personal robo-taxi trip could amount to just 40 to 50% of a driver-based ride-hailing trip.
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The road ahead. Automakers, suppliers, transit agencies, and tech players all want to know how much autonomous mobility will cost and the size of the opportunity. Making these calculations is complex and depends on many factors, including the population density of cities, vehicle type, and operational scale. Read on to learn how the costs of shared AV services could progress over the coming decade, along with what may speed up consumer adoption of robo-taxis.
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| — Edited by Katy McLaughlin |
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